Fall 2023 – Market Outlook: A Falling Demand for Condominiums in the GTA
October 7th, 2023

Fall 2023 – Market Outlook: A Falling Demand for Condominiums in the GTA

Decade Record Low Sales in Condominiums in 2023

The outlook for condo sales across the GTA in Q4 can be easily described as high supply and lower demand. According to Urban Nation, condo sales across the GTA hit a record low of 41%, with only 12,716 units sold. Additionally, newly planned projects saw significant drops in absorption rates, averaging 48%. In conjunction with drops in sales, there is an estimated 19,261 new units that were launched in 2023, which is 13% below the 10-year average. This resulted in an increase of 41% in unsold inventory, reaching 22,477 units by Q4-2023. By the end of 2023, 31% of pre-construction projects sold less than 30% of their units, compared to 0% in Q4-2021. In response to decreased market demand, the latter half of 2023 saw a 72% decline in starts compared to the beginning of the year. With this many projects that were started in previous years, we will quickly see the number of condo completions to skyrocket in 2024. It is expected that in the first half of 2024, there is projected to be 17,918 units completed, compared to 2020 completing 22,473 units. These events provide a very clear overview of the current market condition. That there has now been excess supply and significantly lower demand for condos across the GTA. The average asking price for unsold condos have now decreased by 2% annually to $1,403 psf. In the city of Toronto, prices fell 4% to $1,524 psf. In desperation, developers have given incentives for new buyers, by including cash-back offers, reduced deposits, and other forms of compensation. 

The housing market can be characterized by constant shifts in demand and supply. In conjunction with higher interest rates and the effort to stabilize the economy, the entire market is facing slowdowns. Although unsold inventory is climbing, and condo sales are slowing down, prices remain high and we may see the market reaching equilibrium in the upcoming years. In the meantime, more affordable options such as long-term rentals have become more apparent. Such buildings known as purpose-built rentals (PBRs) are seeing more popularity since a lower financial commitment is required to secure housing. 


Applying to all projects listed on this website: Exclusive Listing Brokerage Cornerstone Marketing Realty Inc., Brokerage. Brokers Protected. Specifications subject to change without notice. All offers, discounts, claims, and mortgage rates apply only to qualified purchasers. Prices and specifications subject to change without notice. E & O.E.